How to read this: every simulated season plays out all 18 weeks of the real 2026 schedule with current rosters and depth charts, plus modeled injury availability. Mean is the average of those seasons; Floor and Ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile seasons. VOR is value over the positional replacement level in a 12-team league — the cross-position currency for draft order.

*About Floor and Ceiling. Rank and mean are the calibrated outputs of this board and are what we would use for draft order. Floor and Ceiling are not yet reliable, and we would rather say so than quietly print them. Measured against seven seasons of real starter outcomes, the 80 percent range shown here currently contains about 68 percent of actual seasons rather than 80 percent. The Ceiling side is close to calibrated. The Floor is the weaker half: a real starter’s tenth-percentile season lands near 0.3 times his median, while this board shows about 0.6 times. Read the Floor as optimistic and the whole range as narrower than reality. That gap closed substantially in this update, from about 40 percent coverage to about 68 percent, after we rebuilt the availability model on a source that keeps tracking players placed on injured reserve. Closing the rest is active work, and this note will change when it lands. More in the FAQ.